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Manchester, N.H. - Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican Sen. John Sununu by 14 points in the U.S. Senate race, a poll by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College shows.
Of the likely voters surveyed in the poll, 49% said they would vote for Shaheen, a Democrat, while 35% said they favored Sununu, the incumbent. One percent said they would vote for Ken Blevins, while 15% said they were undecided.
The survey, conducted by Abt SRBI in New York, has a margin of error of +/_3.5% and included 832 respondents. The poll was conducted between Sept. 25 and Sept. 30.
“Gov. Shaheen shows a considerable lead,” said Michael Dupre, NHIOP senior fellow and designer of the poll. “While 15% of likely voters still say they have not made up their mind, these numbers indicate that the race is Gov. Shaheen’s to lose.”
“This poll, however, is a snapshot in time,” he said. “With economic and political events continually unfolding and information coming at voters 24 hours a day, through print, television and the Internet, the political environment is unpredictable. These poll numbers could shift before the Nov. 4 general election.”
Shaheen, who was defeated by Sununu in the 2002 Senate race, was ahead in every region of the state except the Merrimack Valley, where the candidates are even at 41%, according to the poll.
Women favored Shaheen over Sununu, 54% to 27%, while male voters went evenly for both candidates at 43%. The former governor is strongly ahead with Democrats, moderates and liberals. She also leads with voters who identify themselves as undeclared, 50% to 33%. Shaheen commands a lead among all age groups, including likely voters age 18 to 34, who said they supported the former governor over Sununu 47% to 33%.
“Gov. Shaheen is ahead by double digits in every age group, from voters who are 18 years old to voters who are over 65 years old,” said NHIOP political director Jennifer Donahue. “She is ahead in every geographic region except Merrimack Valley, which includes some of New Hampshire’s most affluent communities. The only income level which evenly supports Sununu and Shaheen are voters making over $100,000 a year. This suggests that the economy and the Wall Street crisis are hurting incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu profoundly in every demographic but the wealthiest voters in New Hampshire.”
Sununu, a first-term senator, was ahead with voters who identified themselves as Republicans, conservatives and Evangelical Christians
“We see a mirror here with the Presidential race, where Obama is 12 points ahead of McCain. The real movement is among undeclared voters,” she said.
For questions on the poll, please call Jennifer Donahue, political director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, (603) 345-6139.
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The Senate Race in New HampshireIf the election was being held today and you had to choose a candidate for the U.S. Senate, which candidate would you choose?
| |
Jeanne Shaheen |
John Sununu |
Ken Blevins |
None/Don't know/no answer |
N |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Statewide |
49% |
35% |
1% |
15% |
781 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| North Country |
56% |
32% |
1% |
11% |
90 |
| Lakes Region |
51% |
30% |
2% |
18% |
118 |
| Monadnock Region |
59% |
30% |
1% |
10% |
88 |
| Dartmouth-Lake Sunapee |
46% |
38% |
|
16% |
56 |
| Merrimack Valley |
41% |
41% |
1% |
17% |
303 |
| Seacoast |
55% |
30% |
|
16% |
126 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Male |
43% |
43% |
2% |
12% |
383 |
| Female |
54% |
27% |
|
19% |
402 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Democrat |
80% |
8% |
|
13% |
250 |
| Republican |
12% |
75% |
1% |
13% |
200 |
| Undeclared |
50% |
33% |
2% |
15% |
320 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Conservative |
21% |
61% |
1% |
16% |
259 |
| Moderate |
57% |
29% |
1% |
12% |
334 |
| Liberal |
77% |
9% |
|
14% |
147 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| 18-34 Years of age |
47% |
33% |
2% |
18% |
109 |
| 35-49 Years of age |
45% |
35% |
2% |
18% |
261 |
| 50-64 Years of age |
53% |
37% |
|
11% |
248 |
| 65+ Years of age |
51% |
34% |
|
15% |
152 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| In NH Less than 5 years |
49% |
21% |
1% |
28% |
81 |
| 5 to 10 years |
50% |
28% |
4% |
19% |
102 |
| 11 to 20 years |
48% |
40% |
3% |
9% |
120 |
| Over 20 years |
48% |
38% |
|
14% |
478 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Married |
46% |
38% |
1% |
15% |
514 |
| Single |
67% |
22% |
3% |
8% |
117 |
| Separated/divorced |
52% |
31% |
|
17% |
88 |
| Widowed |
34% |
39% |
|
26% |
61 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| High School or Less |
47% |
36% |
1% |
16% |
244 |
| Some College |
45% |
40% |
|
15% |
124 |
| Associate's degree |
45% |
32% |
3% |
20% |
126 |
| Bachelor's degree |
54% |
34% |
1% |
12% |
140 |
| Post Graduate |
54% |
32% |
1% |
13% |
147 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Less than $30,000 |
52% |
27% |
|
21% |
98 |
| $30,000 but less than $50,000 |
46% |
35% |
2% |
16% |
123 |
| $50,000 but less than $75,000 |
53% |
32% |
|
15% |
128 |
| $75,000 but less than $100,000 |
51% |
36% |
1% |
11% |
146 |
| $100,000 or more |
44% |
43% |
1% |
13% |
173 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Protestant |
47% |
42% |
2% |
10% |
232 |
| Catholic |
47% |
36% |
|
18% |
284 |
| Other |
55% |
29% |
2% |
14% |
166 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Yes, Evangelical / Born Again |
32% |
49% |
|
18% |
71 |
| No |
49% |
37% |
1% |
13% |
426 |
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Survey Methodology
The New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College poll was conducted by telephone between September 25 and 30, 2008 among 832 registered voters in New Hampshire, age 18 and older, likely to vote in the November 4th General Election.
Likely voters in the sample included respondents who answered that they were 100% certain or would probably vote in the November 4th General Election.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, +/- 5 percentage points among likely voters for both Congressional districts 1 (Congressional District 1 sample size equals 411 respondents and Congressional District 2 sample size equals 421 respondents).
The survey may be subject to other error sources as well, including sample recording error and respondent error.
Some percentage totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Data were weighted to reflect U.S. Census estimates for New Hampshire by gender, age and educational levels.
Designed and coordinated by the Saint Anselm College Institute of Politics, the poll was executed by Abt SRBI in New York City.
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