Buttigieg Tops 2020 Field in Latest New Hampshire Poll

November 19, 2019

By Alexis Soucy

November Poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center Shows Voter Attitudes in New Hampshire towards Upcoming Presidential and State Elections

  • Buttigieg leads New Hampshire primary at 25%, up 15 points from September
  • Warren and Biden tied for second at 15%, followed by Sanders at 9%
  • Only 36% of Democratic New Hampshire voters firm in their choice for president
  • Among voters not firm in their choice, Warren remains most popular second pick at 23%

The November poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) includes a ballot test of the New Hampshire presidential primary, general election matchups, questions regarding impeachment and policies, and early voter attitudes towards New Hampshire’s gubernatorial and Senate races. 

The poll of 512 registered New Hampshire voters, including 255 who expressed interest in voting in the upcoming Democratic presidential primary election, was conducted by landline and cellular phone between November 13 and November 18, 2019.

Pete Buttigieg is up 15 points from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center’s September poll, topping the field with 25% support for the crowded first-in-the-nation primary ballot.

“Buttigieg’s bump is driven by the favorable impression he’s made on voters, with 76% having a favorable impression of him versus only 11% unfavorable,” said NHIOP Executive Director Neil Levesque. “His net favorable of 65% easily bests the field, including Biden [+31%] and Warren [+39%].”

Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden are down 9 and 10 points respectively from the September poll, where they held a head-to-head lead. They now stand tied for second at 15% each.

Bernie Sanders leads the middle of the field at 9%, followed by rising Amy Klobuchar at 6% and Tom Steyer at 5%. Rounding out the ballot test are Tulsi Gabbard and Cory Booker at 3%, Andrew Yang at 2%, and Kamala Harris at 1%. Everyone else is below 1%.

A slight majority of voters (50%-48%) are looking for a candidate who they believe can beat President Donald Trump over a candidate who best reflects their policy priorities. 31% of voters view Biden as the strongest nominee against Trump, well ahead of Buttigieg (11%), Warren (11%) and Sanders (10%).

Biden also does best in the general election matchup, with 51% of all voters indicating they would vote for him compared to 43% for Trump. The margin then narrows for Buttigieg (49%-42%), Sanders (49%-46%), and Warren (47%-46%).  

While voters intend to vote for candidates other than Trump, they still believe Trump will win in the general election. 52%-40% of voters think Trump would top Biden in the general election, as well as Buttigieg (63%-26%), Sanders (65%-27%), and Warren (66%-26%). 

“Buttigieg is benefiting today from his strong positive image, but he will likely have to convince voters that he has a good chance of beating Trump in order to consolidate his new support,” added Levesque.

Only 36% of Democratic voters are firm in their choice for president, down from 43% in September. 57% of current Buttigieg supporters indicate that they could change their mind between now and the primary, as do 60% of Biden supporters and 72% of Warren supporters. Warren is the second choice for 23% of voters, followed by Buttigieg at 13% and Biden at 10%.

The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.3% with a confidence interval of 95%. Questions limited to Democratic primary voters have a margin of sampling error of 6.1%. Data are weighted for age and gender based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.