Election 2020 Final Poll Shows Biden Lead Narrows

October 29, 2020

By Ann Camann

A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds challenger Joe Biden leading incumbent President Donald Trump by 8 points at 52%-44%, down from 12 points (53%-41%) in early October (October 1 - 4, 2020). Biden leads 76%-22% on ballots already cast, while President Donald Trump leads 52%-44% among voters who have yet to vote. This poll also looked at the New Hampshire Gubernatorial, Senate, and Congressional races. This is the final Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll before the November 3 election.
 

Presidential Preference:
Among New Hampshire likely voters, Biden leads among women (56%-41%) and men (48%-47%) with a clear lead among younger (58%-38%) and older (59%-39%) voters, and is tied (48%-48%) with voters aged 35-64. Biden’s overall edge is provided by greater polarization among Democrats (96%-3%), winning undeclared voters (52%-40%) and picking up 11% of Republicans.

Biden’s favorability at 51% and Trump’s at 45% closely mirror voting preference in the presidential election at 52%-44%. 
 

Gubernatorial Preference:
Incumbent Governor Chris Sununu has expanded his lead from 58%-35% since early October (October 1-4, 2020), and now has a comfortable 60%-35% lead. Sununu’s overall edge is provided by greater polarization among Republicans (95%-4%), and winning undeclared voters (68%-24%).  Challenger Dan Feltes is losing 14% of Democrats.

Senate Preference:
Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen has expanded her lead slightly since early October and currently enjoys a 54%-39% margin. Shaheen has built a substantial lead in ballots already cast (76%-21%), but challenger Corky Messner leads 46%-45% among votes who have yet to vote. Shaheen, with nearly unanimous support among Democrats (97%-2%), is leading among undeclared voters 53%-32%.


First Congressional District Preference:
Challenger Matt Mowers has cut incumbent Congressman Chris Pappas’ early October 8-point lead to 5, and now trails 49%-44%; although Pappas has consolidated Democrats (92%-2%), and has held onto 10% of Republican voters, this race is competitive because Mowers leads 45%-44% among undeclared voters.


2nd Congressional District Preference:
Incumbent Congresswoman Annie Kuster has maintained her early October lead and now enjoys a 54%-40% margin over repeat challenger Steve Negron. The outlook for this race is substantially different than in the 1st CD due to Kuster’s 59%-32% lead among undeclared voters.
 

Full Results (PDF/292.1KB)  


NHIOP Exec. Director Neil Levesque offering insight about the latest poll


Results are from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1018 New Hampshire voters likely to vote in this fall’s elections for President, Governor, and Congress.   Surveys were collected between October 23rd and 26th, 2020, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population.  For questions in which respondents were asked to select from a list of options (e.g. presidential preference), choices were presented in random order. Names were presented in random order for each of the political figure and candidate series (e.g. candidate image).  The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3.1% with a confidence interval of 95%; the margins of sampling error for questions specific to congressional districts are 4.1% for District 1 and 4.6% for District 2. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification. 

Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.