July Poll Shows Biden, Harris, Warren Leading New Hampshire

July 15, 2019

By Alexis Soucy

July Poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center Shows Democratic Presidential Primary Field Taking Shape

  • Biden leads ballot test at 21%, followed by Harris at 18% and Warren at 17%; statistical tie between the three considering margin of error
  • Buttigieg and Sanders follow at 12% and 10%, respectively
  • Harris and Warren rise from Saint Anselm College Survey Center April poll
  • Yang surges to sixth place with 5%
  • Williamson ahead of Booker, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and others

The July poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) includes the Survey Center’s second ballot test of the 2020 presidential primary, as well as name recognition and favorability of the candidates.

The poll of 351 randomly-selected registered New Hampshire voters expressing an intention to vote in the upcoming Democratic Presidential Primary was conducted between July 10 and July 12, 2019. The respondents were asked who they would vote for if the presidential primary election were held today, as well as their impressions of 9 presidential candidates presented in random order.

NHIOP Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “In the Saint Anselm College Survey Center’s first look at the New Hampshire Democratic Primary field since the first series of debates, Joe Biden continues to hold a lead in the ballot test, with 21% of primary voters expressing a preference for the former Vice President. However, his lead has narrowed considerably since our last poll in April, as Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have seen a significant post-debate bump, claiming 18% and 17% voter support respectively. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has maintained his support at 12%, while Senator Bernie Sanders has fallen below 10%. Senator Cory Booker and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke have both seen their support virtually disappear.

“The sources of Biden’s support suggest that his narrow advantage may be precarious, as it comes from older and more conservative voters, while Warren leads among the more energized ‘very liberal’ voters. Indeed, among voters that are ‘extremely interested’ in the upcoming presidential election, Harris and Warren are tied at 20% support, leading Biden at 19%. Among ‘extremely’ and ‘very interested’ voters, Harris leads with 19% support to Biden’s 18% and Warren’s 17%.

“It is still very early in the process," Levesque concluded. “However, there are some trends emerging as voters sort through a couple dozen options. Joe Biden is a familiar, well-liked and well-respected figure in the Democratic Party, but between them, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren demonstrate a significant appetite among younger, more liberal voters for a progressive standard-bearer to send against President Donald Trump.

"It is also becoming increasingly difficult for lower-tier candidates to get the attention they need to gather support, as even formerly solid contenders have seen their support dissipate and gather behind the emerging top tier of candidates.”  

The ballot test question, “If the presidential primary election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?” was asked open-ended. The name identification question was narrowed down to a field of nine based on the Real Clear Politics aggregate of New Hampshire polls with a cut-off of 1% support on the ballot test. 

The survey has a margin of sampling error of 5.2% with a confidence interval of 95%. Data are weighted for age, gender and geography based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.