New Poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center Shows GOP Momentum
November 1, 2022
A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds Republican candidates have gained momentum among likely New Hampshire voters. Republican voters are now more energized than Democratic voters, with 84% of Republican voters saying they are paying a lot of attention to the election, compared to 77% of Democratic voters. This represents a 10-point improvement for Republicans, and a 2-point decline for Democrats on this question since the Survey Center’s last poll in late September.
At the top of the ticket, Governor Chris Sununu is riding his popularity to probable re-election. New Hampshire Institute of Politics executive director Neil Levesque stated, “Sununu is by far the most popular elected official in New Hampshire, with a 62%-36% favorable image. Only 60% of voters have an opinion of Sherman, putting him in a difficult position as he tries to persuade voters in the closing days of this election.”
Incumbents Senator Maggie Hassan and Congressman Chris Pappas have seen their favorability decline since late September. Hassan now stands at 45%-54% favorable, down from 48%-51%; Pappas has fallen from 47%-48% to 44%-51%. Bolduc has rebounded from a 10-point favorability deficit (41%-51%) to 46%-49%, and is now viewed slightly more favorably than the incumbent. Leavitt is now above water at 46%-44%, up from 39%-45%, and thus poses a threat to Congressman Pappas. Although less popular, Congresswoman Annie Kuster enjoys a sizable lead over her poorly-known challenger.
Levesque continued, “Buoyed by a strengthening partisan environment and a shift among undeclared voters, Bolduc and Leavitt have moved on the ballot test and now lead the incumbents. Bolduc edges out Hassan, 48%-47%, while Leavitt has built a solid lead at 51%-45%. With only 65% of voters having an opinion of him, challenger Robert Burns is having difficulty moving voters and trails Kuster 50%-42% on the ballot test. This margin may tighten as undecided Republicans settle on their party’s nominee over the remainder of the campaign.”
Levesque concluded, saying “Polls are snapshots of voter attitudes in time, not predictions. Candidates will have the opportunity to make their final arguments in this week’s closing debates, and in the final days of campaigning.”
Results are from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1541 New Hampshire likely voters. Surveys were collected between October 28 and 29, 2022 from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of likely voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for candidate image and the ballot test series.
The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5% with a confidence interval of 95%; the margin of sampling error for questions specific to congressional districts are +/- 3.5% and 3.6% in CD-1 and CD-2 respectively. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.