Saint Anselm College Survey Center June Poll Finds Democrats Expand Generic Ballot Lead

The June poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds Democrats maintaining an advantage heading into the fall elections.

Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by 10 points (49%–39%), up from an eight-point advantage in March. Democratic voters also continue to report higher enthusiasm for the upcoming election, with 95% saying they are extremely likely to vote compared with 90% of Republicans. While voters trust the two parties equally on economic issues, Democrats hold an eight-point advantage on affordability, up from seven points in March.

President Donald Trump's standing has declined since March. Thirty-eight percent approve of the job he is doing, while 37% view him favorably—declines of four and five points, respectively.

Despite the challenging political environment for Republicans, Governor Kelly Ayotte continues to receive positive marks. A plurality (49%) approve of her job performance, and she leads former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington45%–37% in a potential general election matchup.

The poll also finds familiar candidates leading early primary contests. Congressman Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary and leads both Republican contenders in potential general election matchups. In CD1, former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen leads the Democratic primary field, while incumbent Maggie Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams hold substantial leads in their respective CD2 primaries.

Looking ahead to 2028, Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic primary field with 29%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (17%) and Gavin Newsom (11%). Among Republicans, Vice President J.D. Vance remains the early frontrunner with 37%, although his lead over Secretary of State Marco Rubio (30%) has narrowed since March.

Ahead of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, the survey reveals a sharp partisan divide in national pride. Nearly all Republicans (94%) report being proud to be Americans, while 66% of Democrats say they are ashamed. Similar divisions are reflected in attitudes toward living in New Hampshire.

NHIOP Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the findings: "War, inflation, and economic uncertainty are difficult challenges for any incumbent president, and President Trump has seen significant declines in both his job approval and popularity. The resulting political headwinds are creating opportunities for Democratic candidates as we approach the fall elections. Governor Kelly Ayotte is a bright spot for Republicans as she continues to demonstrate buoyancy, running well ahead of the generic ballot."
 

These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1614 New Hampshire registered voters. Surveys were collected between June 24th and 25th, 2026, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.4% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification. 

Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.