The August poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds the Democratic lead on the generic ballot continuing to widen, with 52% of respondents now saying they will likely support a Democratic candidate for Congress in the fall elections.
Democrats have also gained an advantage on economic issues, with voters now trusting the Democratic Party over Republicans 46%-39%, compared with an even 40%-40% in June, while Democrats hold a 48%-36% advantage on affordability. The war in Iran is also weighing on Republican candidates, with 60% of respondents saying they are less likely to support a Republican because of the war. President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 37%, while Governor Kelly Ayotte remains relatively popular, with 50% approving of her job performance and 51% holding a favorable opinion of her.
Ayotte has increased her lead over Cinde Warmington to 49%-38%, while Warmington’s unfavorable rating has risen to 37%, from 27% in June. Chris Pappas leads both potential Republican opponents in general-election matchups, defeating John E. Sununu 48%-41% and Scott Brown 49%-37%, although Pappas’ unfavorable rating has increased to 51%, from 43% in June.
The primary elections are taking shape as voters become more familiar with the candidates. Pappas leads Karishma Manzur 59%-28% in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, while Sununu leads Brown 54%-24% in the Republican primary. In the 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, Democratic Party Vice Chair Maura Sullivan and former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen are in a statistical dead heat, 26%-24%, atop a crowded field. Anthony DiLorenzo leads Hollie Noveletsky 30%-17% in the Republican primary. In the 2nd Congressional District, Maggie Goodlander leads Paige Beauchemin 66%-17% in the Democratic primary, while Lily Tang Williams leads Victor Orlando 53%-7% in the Republican primary.
In the potential 2028 presidential primaries, Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic field with 25%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17%, while Marco Rubio has moved within two points of Republican frontrunner Vice President J.D. Vance, 38%-36%.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results: “Republicans are still on the back foot as the midterm elections draw near. An unpopular President and an unpopular war are causing problems for candidates even as negative attacks on Democrats are finding their mark. Governor Kelly Ayotte is still managing to buck the political headwinds and has gained some ground over challenger Cinde Warmington.”
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1411 New Hampshire likely voters. Surveys were collected between August 17th and 18th, 2026, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.