A new poll of New Hampshire registered voters conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) highlights early voter sentiment heading into the 2028 election cycle. The survey reveals notable shifts in candidate favorability, key issue priorities, and emerging primary dynamics.
“President Donald Trump’s post-election bump has dissipated, setting up early leads for Democratic candidates in federal races,” said Neil Levesque, NHIOP Executive Director. “Looking ahead to 2028, Vice President JD Vance is the clear Republican frontrunner, with Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom emerging as the top early choices for Democrats.”
Key Survey Findings:
Trump Favorability Settles: After an early post-election rise, Trump’s favorability has returned to historical norms at 43% favorable / 57% unfavorable.
Voter Outlook Dims: Only 40% believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 44% in March.
Democrats Gain Ground: Democrats now lead the congressional generic ballot by 6 points (50%-44%), up from a 1-point edge in March.
Issue Shift:“Elections and Democracy” has surpassed the economy as voters' top concern, driven largely by Democrats.
Ayotte Holds Ground: Governor Kelly Ayotte maintains relatively strong approval (49% favorable / 46% unfavorable) in a divided environment.
U.S. Senate Race:
Scott Brown leads GOP primary opponent Dan Innis, 48%-13%.
Rep. Chris Pappas leads both Republicans in general matchups—by 11 points over Brown and 18 over Innis.
Congressional Contests:
Rep. Maggie Goodlander leads Lily Tang Williams, 49%-31%.
Stefany Shaheen leads the Democratic primary in NH-01, while the GOP field remains unsettled.
2028 Presidential Primary:
JD Vance dominates the GOP field with 56% support; others trail in single digits.
Buttigieg and Newsom are tied at 23% among Democrats, with Pritzker (9%), Ocasio-Cortez (7%), and Harris (6%) following.
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1776 New Hampshire registered voters. Surveys were collected between August 26th and 27th, 2025, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.3% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
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About the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for political discussion, scholarship, and civic engagement. The Institute fosters dialogue on a broad range of political issues, serving students, scholars, policymakers, and the public.