A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds President Joe Biden as the early choice for 68% of Democratic Primary voters, with neither of his current challengers garnering significant support.  Former President Donald Trump is consolidating support in the face of several candidates diluting his opposition, and is the preference of a strong plurality of 47% of Republican Primary voters.  

New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque stated, “Voters across demographics and parties believe a Biden/Trump matchup would be a clear sign that the party system is broken.  Republicans (14%) are somewhat more inclined than Democrats (6%) to believe such a match-up represents the best that each party has to offer, but 83% overall disagree.”  

With this survey’s shift from testing potential candidates in March to testing announced candidates, Biden has consolidated 68% support among Democratic Primary voters.  Recent entrant Robert Kennedy, Jr. has ridden a wave of publicity to 9% support, while repeat candidate Marianne Williamson picks up 8%.

Former President Donald Trump is looking to repeat his successful 2016 pathway to victory of scattering opposition among several opponents.  As new entrants have emerged since our last survey in March, Trump has gained 5 points of support and now sits just shy of a majority with 47%.  Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen his support erode 10 points to 19%.  Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is now in third place in the state followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Governor Tim Scott.

Levesque concluded, saying “As of now, Biden would prevail in a rematch with Trump in New Hampshire.  49% of respondents would vote for Biden, while 40% would vote for Trump.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will have to articulate a clear rationale for his challenge to Trump if he is to avoid falling back to the pack. The rationale won’t be that he’s a palatable alternative to the former President, as he demonstrates no better ballot strength (Biden 49%-40%) among General Election voters.  As of today, voters seem headed toward precipitating a rematch of 2020 that few claim to be happy about.”   

Results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1065 New Hampshire registered voters. Surveys were collected between June 21st and 23rd, 2023, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the candidate preference questions. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3.0% with a confidence interval of 95%; The margin of sampling error for the primary ballot tests is 4.8% for the Democratic ballot and 4.4% for the Republican ballot. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.

Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.

Read the full results