A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has doubled her support from 15% in the Survey Center’s last poll in September and now sits at 30% with just over a month before the First in the Nation Primary.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque stated “After earning the key endorsement of New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, former Ambassador Nikki Haley has broken away from the pack pursuing former President Donald Trump and become the clear alternative. However, even after cutting Trump’s lead in half, she still trails as his support remains steady in the mid-40’s. Trump’s supporters seem undeterred by the former president’s ongoing legal challenges.”
Trump maintains a significant lead, as 44% of respondents express their preference for the former president on the ballot test, a 14-point lead over his closest challenger, Nikki Haley. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues to make incremental gains, while former Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ support has all but disappeared. Christie is now the preferred candidate of 12% of respondents, while DeSantis now sits at 6%.
New Hampshire Democratic voters may punish President Joe Biden for skipping the New Hampshire Primary, but likely not enough to make a difference. 50% indicate they would write in the president, and neither challenger Dean Phillips (10%) nor Marianne Williamson (7%) has developed much momentum.
Levesque continued “Biden enjoys a unified party, while the Republicans are fractured. In a hypothetical three-way contest between the incumbent, Trump, and independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 92% of Democratic primary voters indicate they would vote for Biden in the general election, while only 62% of Republican primary voters indicate they would vote for Trump.”
Illustrative of Trump’s looming problem in New Hampshire, a strong majority of Christie supporters indicate they would vote for Biden if Trump is the Republican nominee; 79% would vote for Biden, while only 1% would vote for Trump. A plurality of Haley supporters, 43%, would choose Biden over Trump. Kennedy doesn’t appear to hurt Biden as he draws a bit more Republican voters than Democrats. Kennedy takes 9% of the Republican vote in the hypothetical match-up versus only 6% of the Democratic vote.
Trump trails Biden by 10-points in a hypothetical general election ballot. Biden carries 90% of Democrats and 49% of undeclared voters to build a 49%-39% lead. Trump is weakened by carrying only 78% of Republicans.
Results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1711 New Hampshire likely voters in the upcoming presidential primary. Surveys were collected between December 18th and 19th, 2023, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the candidate preference questions. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9% with a confidence interval of 95%; the margin of sampling error for the primary questions is +/- 4.8% for the Democratic primary and +/- 3.0% for the Republican primary. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.